12 July 2005

A short wait for success

It’s going to be a season to remember. Most supporters have high expectations this season, and Chorley could be in the Top 5 come the end of the season – with every chance of a play-off promotion. But how soon should we expect the team to get into a leading position.

We asked Victor E Parke, one time ace statistician for Magpie in Space but now nothing special, to predict when we shall know that Chorley are on the way. At this stage Victor's computer is using last season’s results with Gresley, Mossley, Eastwood and Kendal up there plus an allowance for one of the new sides. On paper Mossley and Gresley have the easier starts and should be leading after the first two weeks. Chorley will not move into the top half until early September but then they will climb fast into the Top Five. They may even reach the dizzy heights of second place around 17 September, but will then drop away (particularly if we have a good FA Cup run).

The crunch time is mid-September when we face Mossley (predicted by the computer to be No 1 by then) and Kendal in consecutive mid-week fixtures. These two games could have a major effect on how each of these teams does at the end of the season. Indeed last year’s leaders at this stage - Ilkeston and Ferriby - went up.

No matter these results (the computer makes them Draws) Chorley will keep in Top 5 contention throughout the season.

But this is just Victor’s computer talking and in the past it has been at best patchy in its predictions. We’ll ask him to review it after 5 matches, to take account of 'wild cards' including the new teams. Whatever, it looks like an exciting season ahead.

20 September 2003

Bridlington, Lincoln and Prescot may be currently leading the pack – but the eventual winners may not come from these. We asked ace statistician Victor E Parke to predict who will be top by Christmas. His computer now has enough data to sort out the table for us. And this year it could be some of the Big Teams that fight it out.

By Christmas, Hyde United (currently 10th) will be at the top along with Stocksbridge PS. Bridlington, Guiseley and Witton will be tucked in just behind them. Chorley will be in the Top 10 but not yet challenging the leaders. (We’ve heard that before from Victor who always seems to place Chorley higher than they achieve).

Of the two new teams, Bridlington will fare better than Prescot whose early form will drop away. So too Matlock, currently 5th. The places from 8 to 12 have a familiar look, featuring three of last year’s playoff challengers. If North Ferriby could put on a spurt, then we may see a similar fight next April to last, this time the four playing for the final spot for teams that stay at this level of the pyramid (Unibond Prem next season).

Others to watch out for are Gateshead and dare we say it Bamber Bridge. So here’s the Christmas positions according to Victor. But the way anyone can beat anyone in this league, who knows who will be top come April. We’ll ask Victor for an update at the turn of the year.

IT MIGHT AS WELL RAIN UNTIL SEPTEMBER

6 July 2003

With the fixtures out just a week ago, we’ve asked Victor E Parke, Chorley's ace statistician, to grade each team based on pre-season reports and to see what the computer says about the first two months of the season. Victor was very reluctant to make such predictions, preferring to base them on the actual form after the first five weeks of the new season. However, just for us – because we are Chorley fans – he has processed our very raw data.

The result, says the computer, is that success will not come early for Chorley nor form team Bridlington, who both have a very hard opening set of fixtures. The computer predicts that Belper will start like a train with Witton in close pursuit. Bishop and Hyde may drop points to each other, but will catch the front two by the end of the month. Chorley meanwhile will be in the bottom third with only a handful of points.

However by mid-September Chorley and Bridlington will be on a roll and should make a Top Seven place by the end of the month. Bishop may falter given long-distance midweek matches in September, while Witton and Hyde (with shorter journeys) will keep the pressure on.

Positions as at 1st September

1	Belper Town
2	Bishop Auckland
3	Hyde United or Witton Albion

Positions as at 30th September

1	Belper Town
2	Hyde United
3	Witton Albion
4	Bishop Auckland

So it's Belper to make the pace – unless Chorley cause an upset in the first match of the season. If that happens then Belper will still be in the Top Two, but in any case we'll have to wait for five weeks to see the real predictions for the end-of-season places.

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SURPRISING PRINT-OUT REJECTS EARLY FORM

12 September 2002

It’s going to be very tight again in Unibond 1, one of the most competitive leagues in the country. But who will be Top come April?

Victor E Parke, Magpies in Space’s ace statistician, has given MIS visitors an exclusive run-down on the end-of-season placings. Against all pre-season forecasts, against early form, against the current league table, Victor’s computer has chosen the most unlikely of league winners in Lincoln United (unlikely - remember our 8-1 score three seasons back).

None of the current Top 4 will win automatic promotion. Kendal and North Ferriby will slip down the table to be replaced by Lincoln and Spennymoor. Alfreton and Leek will challenge strongly. Witton’s early run will stutter during September but they should regroup to make a good run into Top 5 for a play-off place.

The final table according to Victor’s computer is:

Places 6 to 10 will be filled by teams from Rossendale, Stocksbridge, Kendal and North Ferriby plus possibly Chorley if they sort out their defence. Pre-season favourites Ossett, so cruelly denied promotion last term will have to wait another year, as will early front-runners Belper.

Remember, Victor's computer is rarely wrong (except where Chorley are concerned). So sit back, watch the action, but don't be surprised if we are all Lincoln-green with envy come the season's end.

Reactions:

"Lincoln United? Next thing you know the computer will be tipping Chorley. I will be astonished if Lincoln go up this season. I'm sticking with Witton, it must be their turn sometime. Top half for Chorley but no playoffs, although I hope I'm wrong."

Mark Rees, Magpies In Space Webmaster

"I think the play-offs could be a reasonable aim for Chorley this season. I definitely don't agree with Lincoln. They have about as much chance as West Ham in the Prem!"

Lee

"Are you serious, no mention of Radcliffe Borough? Would you like a bet or give me odds on us being in the shake up at the end of the season.

Anonymous Radcliffe Borough Fan

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VICTOR PANICKED BUT HIS COMPUTER IS STILL THE TOPS

When last summer we asked Chorley's ace statistician Victor E Parke to predict the two promotion candidates for 2001/2, he chose Ossett Town and Ashton, without a ball having been kicked (see below). He based this on the form at the end of the previous season.

But at the time he said he would like to number-crunch again after 5 or 6 weeks. This he did in October and came up with the result that Harrogate would be top, and Ossett second.

That was some going but then Victor committed the cardinal sin of questioning his own trusty computer's results. Last Christmas, with some of the results not going the way of Ashton and Ossett, he revised his earlier predictions and changed his promotion candidates (except for Harrogate).

"I panicked" said Victor. "Particularly over Ashton. I should have stuck to my guns. My computer is usually very accurate and the two early print-outs were spot on".

Magpies in Space has invited his pre-season predictions for 2002-03 and will again employ him (at great expense) to provide a computer print-out of the final places after 5 or 6 league matches, probably mid-September.

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PRE-SEASON 2002-03 PREDICTIONS

July 2002

Just look at the competition. The champions could come from Bishop Auckland, Chorley, Eastwood Town, Kidsgrove Athletic, Leek Town, Ossett Town, Radcliffe Borough, Rossendale United, Spennymoor United, Witton Albion- all big names you can't bet against. Talk of Chorley walking the league is misplaced. This league will be as tight as ever.

However, the early leaders will be Chorley (if they find a suitable replacement for Marshy), with an outstanding 15 points from their first 21. Kidsgrove Athletic will also be up there, followed closely by Ossett Town and possibly Witton Albion. These 4 then will pull away at the top with one other (Eastwood Town or a team with an R in its name).

Chorley could hold onto a Top 3 place until 20 October, after which their greater fitness early on will prove less of an advantage. Five hard matches against Kidsgrove, Witton (twice), Trafford and Leek might present too much of a test. Victor expects the Magpies to be around sixth/seventh place by mid-October particularly if we have the diversion of a better FA Cup run this year. This may seem disappointing to pundits who think we will "win the league by Christmas", but Victor isn't being too pessimistic - it will still represent Chorley's best-ever early-season run in this Division.

From this point, fortunes can go either way, as Unibond Division One is a tight league at the best of times. However, a play-off place next April is a real possibility for the Magpies, says Victor.

For the actual end-of-season places however, you needn't wait until April. Victor hopes to produce a Final Table read-out mid-September.

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END-OF-SEASON 2001-02 PREDICTIONS

Radcliffe, currently second, for automatic promotion? Leek, currently third for the play-offs? No and No! Both will falter. That’s the prediction of Magpies In Space's ace statistician Victor E Parke.

At the half way stage (all teams having played 21 games), the table looks like this:

So that’s the midway front-runners, but another team is coming up fast from about 11th place. They will make the playoffs! Who? See below in:

VICTOR’S FINAL TABLE FOR UNIBOND DIVISION ONE, 2001/2

As in earlier seasons, Victor says that the odd refereeing decision, last-minute goal etc can turn 3 points into 1 and therefore his computer predictions are plus or minus 2 points. So they can get the champagne out in Harrogate, and it’s back to the drawing board for the rest of us. Oh, except, who will win the playoffs? It’s between Radcliffe, Ossett, Witton and possibly Hucknall (although Victor’s computer hasn’t analysed the Premier Division, so the 4th team could be anyone). Victor plumps for Witton as they currently have the greatest momentum, but will give his final prediction of playoffs at the end of the campaign.

As for Chorley, they will improve and if they keep the nucleus of the current side, including the younger players, might make next year’s playoffs.

(Compiled 14 Jan 2001 by Victor E Parke)

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HALFWAY UPDATE - VICTOR DOES IT AGAIN

Some months back, our man with the crystal ball Victor E Parke predicted the top 8 for the turn of the year. Seven of his eight selections made the top 8, the exception being - who else - the under-performing Chorley FC. We've warned him about selecting teams on sentiment.

Harrogate, sixth in October, duly obliged by taking the No. 1 spot as he predicted. But his other Top Tip, Ossett Town, only came in 5th, (although they have a game in hand on Leek and could have made 3rd).

Victor usually cautions that the odd bad refereeing decision or last-minute goal can alter his predictions by +/- 3 points. Of the 7, two were spot on, three came within this range, and Radcliffe and Ossett switched points totals, but both remained in the Top 7.

5 teams in Bold are within computer error.

With only 4 points covering 3rd to 7th place, we could say that these 5 teams - give or take the odd point - generally did as Victor predicted.

As a result we've asked him to give us his final points totals for May and to predict the Automatic Promotions and Play-off Teams. You'll be able to marvel at his results in a week or so, once the snow and frost has gone and everyone has completed the halfway total of 21 matches.

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OCTOBER UPDATE

Victor E Parke's computer has now sorted out its predictions for the halfway stage of the 2001/2002 season. Today, Rossendale are setting the pace along with Eastwood Town. However Victor feels that by Christmas, Harrogate will start their drive for promotion as McClusky's men start to falter. Trafford & Lincoln will drop out of Top 8. Ashton & Chorley may just creep inside. A Staffordshire side, now reportedly with Greg Challender on board, will shore up their Leeky (sic) defence and will mix it with the best. But which five will make the playoffs?

Victor will reveal all on New Year's Day.

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DIVISION ONE CHAMPIONSHIP 2001/02

Victor E Parke says he doesn’t need to look at the first few results this year to predict the eventual winners. It will be Ossett Town by a mile. Ossett will do a Vauxhall with a strong lead by Christmas, but will not fall away as Vauxhall did last term, when they let in Bradford. Unless of course they do well in FA Cups and run up a backlog. Ashton will be title-chasers again and may go up with Ossett. Harrogate & Matlock are ones to consider. And you can’t dismiss Trafford. All play as teams, and most have depth with reserves etc, despite in some cases not being able to attract the best-paid players. Another team that will do better this year are Kendal, and Rossendale are one to watch.

Will Chorley make the playoffs? Victor reckons that with 4 of our first 5 games at home, we need to be in the Top 2 or 3 at end of August for us to stand any chance of holding a Top 5 place at the end of the season. Ken has attracted some quality players to Victory Park. We should be able to make a challenge, but Ken’s tactics - particularly in defence - sometimes leave great gaps and we could find ourselves again facing mid-table mediocrity.

So come Christmas, it’s

Of course this is pure speculation. Victor’s computer will only really be able to predict the eventual winners after first few matches. So we may invite him back around Christmas to give us the ‘final’ placings.

Incidentally, Victor had an email from Bradford PA last January worried that they had let things slip. He was able to assure them that all would be well - as it indeed turned out. So any assurance for Chorley this season?. Let’s see after the first 5 matches! Top 2 or 3 to be on course. Nothing else will do.

This season, says Victor, is a great opportunity for teams to leapfrog two divisions. The introduction of the Conference North feeder league means that Unibond Premiership teams with good grounds (few are potentially better than Victory Park) will be accepted. But Chorley MUST be promoted to take this opportunity. A little investment this year could return us to the good old days of 800+ crowds.

Victor E Parke was interviewed on 14 August 2001, before season’s start.

Reactions:

"Fans will surely not be satisfied with anything less than a top 5 place this season. Although the team has been strengthened, the problem of who to play at full-back remains, with all kinds of permutations seen in the friendlies. If the positions are not adequately filled, then we will ship too many goals to challenge and another season will be wasted. I'm going to tip Belper for a play-off spot as well."

Mark Rees, Magpies In Space Webmaster

"Well, I think that Harrogate will win the league with Ossett Town and Ashton United battling it out for the other automatic promotion place. The other two play off places will be taken by any of Matlock Town, Witton Albion, Rossendale United (if they keep Sargeson) and Stocksbridge Park Steels.

As for us, well! With the loss of three experienced strikers (Matthews, Evans & Swailes) and with Corcoran out for a month or so and Kay missing until after Christmas the last thing we wanted to hear was that Critchley won't play this season in an attempt to give his ankle a rest. Leather also being doubtful with a broken toe makes the opening games of the season that bit more difficult than they would have been. I can imagine us having quite a few drawn games this season with goals going in at both ends (not many 0-0's!!!).

We need two or three more experienced signings who can bring consistency to the team before we consider ourselves challengers this season. Bring back Greg Challender, Tony Ward and Mark Ceraolo and we might have a chance.

Fancy, Chorley -v- Bamber Bridge in the play-off final at Deepdale!!!!!!"

Anonymous Chorley fan

"From what I and my good lady wife have seen so far any chance of a top five spot is fantasy, Too many elemental errors - players can't pass to a colleague etc. - mean a long hard winter, I fear. Oh well, hope we're wrong."

Paul Brennan

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